ABSTRACT
Rationale Prognostic accuracy of the qSOFA and CRB-65 risk scores has not been widely evaluated in SARS-CoV-2 infected compared to SARS-CoV-2 non-infected community-acquired pneumonia (CAP). Objectives The aim was to validate the qSOFA(−65) and CRB-65 scores in a large cohort of SARS-CoV-2 infected and non-infected CAP patients. Methods We included all cases with CAP hospitalized in 2020 from the German nationwide mandatory quality assurance program and compared SARS-CoV-2 infected with non-infected cases. We excluded cases with unclear SARS-CoV-2 infection state, transferred to another hospital or on mechanical ventilation (MV) during admission. Predefined outcomes were hospital mortality and need of MV. Results Among 68 594 SARS-CoV-2 infected patients, hospital mortality (22.7%) and MV (14.9%) was significantly higher when compared to 167.880 SARS-CoV-2 negative patients (15.7% and 9.2%, respectively). All CRB-65 and qSOFA criteria were associated with both outcomes, and age dominated mortality prediction in SARS-CoV-2 (relative risk >9). Scores including the age-criterion had higher AUCs for mortality in SARS-CoV-2 positive (e.g. CRB-65 AUC 0.76) compared to SARS-CoV-2 negative (AUC 0.68) patients, and NPV was highest for qSOFA-65=0 (98.2%). Sensitivity for MV prediction was poor with all scores (AUCs 0.59–0.62), and NPVs were insufficient (qSOFA-65=0 missed 1490/10 198∼ 15% patients with MV). Results were similar when excluding frail and palliative patients. Conclusions Hospital mortality and MV rates were higher in SARS-CoV-2 positive compared to SARS-CoV-2 negative CAP. For SARS-CoV-2 positive CAP, the CRB-65 and qSOFA-65 scores showed adequate prediction of mortality, but not of MV.
ABSTRACT
For appropriate response to the COVID-19 pandemic, and for obtaining answers to various relevant research questions, empirical data are required. Claims data of health insurances are a valid data source in such a situation. Within the project egePan-Unimed of the Netzwerk Universitätsmedizin (NUM) we investigated five COVID-19-related research questions using German claims data of statutory health insurances. We studied the prevalence and relevance of risk factors for a severe course of COVID-19, the background incidence of cerebral venous sinus thrombosis and myocarditis, the frequency and symptoms of post-COVID as well as the care of people with a psychiatric condition during the COVID-19 pandemic. Based on these cases, context-specific recommendations regarding the use of German claims data for future pandemics or other public health emergencies were derived, namely that the utilization of established and interdisciplinary project teams enables a timely project start and furthermore, meta-analytic methods are a valuable way to pool aggregated results of claims data analyses when data protection regulations do not allow a consolidation of data sets from different statutory health insurances. Under these circumstances, claims data are a readily available and valid data source of empirical evidence base necessary for public health measures during a pandemic.
ABSTRACT
Aim: We aimed to develop a risk score to calculate a person's individual risk for a severe COVID-19 course (POINTED score) to support prioritization of especially vulnerable patients for a (booster) vaccination. Subject and methods: This cohort study was based on German claims data and included 623,363 individuals with a COVID-19 diagnosis in 2020. The outcome was COVID-19 related treatment in an intensive care unit, mechanical ventilation, or death after a COVID-19 infection. Data were split into a training and a test sample. Poisson regression models with robust standard errors including 35 predefined risk factors were calculated. Coefficients were rescaled with a min-max normalization to derive numeric score values between 0 and 20 for each risk factor. The scores' discriminatory ability was evaluated by calculating the area under the curve (AUC). Results: Besides age, down syndrome and hematologic cancer with therapy, immunosuppressive therapy, and other neurological conditions were the risk factors with the highest risk for a severe COVID-19 course. The AUC of the POINTED score was 0.889, indicating very good predictive validity. Conclusion: The POINTED score is a valid tool to calculate a person's risk for a severe COVID-19 course. Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10389-023-01884-7.
ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: Long-term health sequelae of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) are a major public health concern. However, evidence on post-acute COVID-19 syndrome (post-COVID-19) is still limited, particularly for children and adolescents. Utilizing comprehensive healthcare data on approximately 46% of the German population, we investigated post-COVID-19-associated morbidity in children/adolescents and adults. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We used routine data from German statutory health insurance organizations covering the period between January 1, 2019 and December 31, 2020. The base population included all individuals insured for at least 1 day in 2020. Based on documented diagnoses, we identified individuals with polymerase chain reaction (PCR)-confirmed COVID-19 through June 30, 2020. A control cohort was assigned using 1:5 exact matching on age and sex, and propensity score matching on preexisting medical conditions. The date of COVID-19 diagnosis was used as index date for both cohorts, which were followed for incident morbidity outcomes documented in the second quarter after index date or later.Overall, 96 prespecified outcomes were aggregated into 13 diagnosis/symptom complexes and 3 domains (physical health, mental health, and physical/mental overlap domain). We used Poisson regression to estimate incidence rate ratios (IRRs) with 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs). The study population included 11,950 children/adolescents (48.1% female, 67.2% aged between 0 and 11 years) and 145,184 adults (60.2% female, 51.1% aged between 18 and 49 years). The mean follow-up time was 236 days (standard deviation (SD) = 44 days, range = 121 to 339 days) in children/adolescents and 254 days (SD = 36 days, range = 93 to 340 days) in adults. COVID-19 and control cohort were well balanced regarding covariates. The specific outcomes with the highest IRR and an incidence rate (IR) of at least 1/100 person-years in the COVID-19 cohort in children and adolescents were malaise/fatigue/exhaustion (IRR: 2.28, 95% CI: 1.71 to 3.06, p < 0.01, IR COVID-19: 12.58, IR Control: 5.51), cough (IRR: 1.74, 95% CI: 1.48 to 2.04, p < 0.01, IR COVID-19: 36.56, IR Control: 21.06), and throat/chest pain (IRR: 1.72, 95% CI: 1.39 to 2.12, p < 0.01, IR COVID-19: 20.01, IR Control: 11.66). In adults, these included disturbances of smell and taste (IRR: 6.69, 95% CI: 5.88 to 7.60, p < 0.01, IR COVID-19: 12.42, IR Control: 1.86), fever (IRR: 3.33, 95% CI: 3.01 to 3.68, p < 0.01, IR COVID-19: 11.53, IR Control: 3.46), and dyspnea (IRR: 2.88, 95% CI: 2.74 to 3.02, p < 0.01, IR COVID-19: 43.91, IR Control: 15.27). For all health outcomes combined, IRs per 1,000 person-years in the COVID-19 cohort were significantly higher than those in the control cohort in both children/adolescents (IRR: 1.30, 95% CI: 1.25 to 1.35, p < 0.01, IR COVID-19: 436.91, IR Control: 335.98) and adults (IRR: 1.33, 95% CI: 1.31 to 1.34, p < 0.01, IR COVID-19: 615.82, IR Control: 464.15). The relative magnitude of increased documented morbidity was similar for the physical, mental, and physical/mental overlap domain. In the COVID-19 cohort, IRs were significantly higher in all 13 diagnosis/symptom complexes in adults and in 10 diagnosis/symptom complexes in children/adolescents. IRR estimates were similar for age groups 0 to 11 and 12 to 17. IRs in children/adolescents were consistently lower than those in adults. Limitations of our study include potentially unmeasured confounding and detection bias. CONCLUSIONS: In this retrospective matched cohort study, we observed significant new onset morbidity in children, adolescents, and adults across 13 prespecified diagnosis/symptom complexes, following COVID-19 infection. These findings expand the existing available evidence on post-COVID-19 conditions in younger age groups and confirm previous findings in adults. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT05074953.